Forecasting Correctional Populations
Description
A key responsibility of corrections research and planning teams is anticipating resource needs, particularly staffing and bed space. Population forecasts help agencies estimate future prison and community supervision populations by using historical trends to project future growth or decline.
This course focuses on the stock and flow forecasting method. Rather than using the traditional systems dynamics terminology of "stock" and "flow," the course uses more human-centered language to describe the total incarcerated or supervised population and the movement of people entering and leaving correctional systems.
Stock and flow models are straightforward to understand, explain to decision-makers, and modify to examine the effects of policy changes. Learners will build these models using historical data and demonstrations in R, although the concepts apply to any analytical tool.
The course also introduces more advanced forecasting approaches and reviews forecasting methodologies currently used by state corrections agencies.
Intended Audience
This course is intended for corrections analysts and researchers interested in learning the fundamentals of correctional population forecasting. Learners should have basic experience cleaning and manipulating quantitative data. Examples are demonstrated in R, but prior knowledge of R is not required.
Learning Objectives
After completing this course, learners will be able to:
- Describe the purpose of correctional population forecasts.
- Build a stock and flow forecasting model by identifying required data, preparing data, and calculating projections.
- Communicate forecasting results effectively to decision-makers.
- Understand alternative forecasting models and determine when each approach is appropriate.
Course Structure
The course is organized into sequential lessons. Each lesson includes instructional videos, demonstrations, and practical exercises that allow learners to apply the concepts presented.
| Lesson | Objectives |
|---|---|
| 1. Why Forecast Correctional Populations? |
Define correctional population forecasting. Discuss appropriate and inappropriate uses of forecasts. Understand the role of forecasts in correctional impact statements. |
| 2. Stock and Flow Models |
Describe stock and flow forecasting principles. Identify required data. Modify assumptions and parameters for policy scenarios and subpopulations. |
| 3. Prepare Data for Forecast |
Clean population data. Calculate admissions and length-of-stay trends. Prepare data for subpopulation forecasts. |
| 4. Create Forecast |
Generate population and subpopulation projections. Adjust assumptions to evaluate policy proposals and scenarios. |
| 5. Communicate Results |
Create charts and tables. Present findings to technical and non-technical audiences. Estimate financial impacts using forecast results. |
| 6. Other Forecasting Methods |
Recognize advanced forecasting methods, including time series models and microsimulation. Distinguish between deterministic and probabilistic models. Review forecasting applications from multiple states. |
Resources
- William J. Sabol & Miranda L. Baumann (2022). Forecasting and Criminal Justice Policy and Practice.
- Bruce D. McDonald III, J. Winn Decker, & Matthew James Hunt. Forecasting for Prisons and Jails, in The Palgrave Handbook of Government Budget Forecasting.
- Elizabeth Pelletier, Bryce Peterson, & Ryan King. <a href="https://apps.urban.org/features/prison-population-forecaster/prison_population_forecaster-methodology.pdf"The Prison Population Forecaster Methodology and Appendix.
Estimated Time to Complete
4 hours
Keywords
Population forecasting, R
